When upgrading the ArcGIS License Manager software, it is necessary to run the executable file downloaded from My Esri, for extracting the Setup.exe file. But in a some cases, if an invalid output location is used, the following error might be returned, and as seen in the image below:
Error: Cannot open file for writing: C:\Users\<username>\Documents\ArcGIS License Manager 2020.0\Setup.exe
The output folder is an invalid location. In this example, an upgrade was attempted from version 2020.0 to 2022.0 but the output location for the Setup.exe was the same as the old version.
In the wizard, click Browse and select a valid output location; the default path populated by the wizard is not always correct. The suggested output location is the one presented in the path below, just ensure the "x" belong to the version you are installing:
C:\Users\<username>\Documents\ArcGIS License Manager 20xx.x