Why has there been so much demographic change between 2021 and 2022 in the U.S.?

Answer

Data users may experience large changes when transitioning from 2021/2026 Esri Updated Demographics in the U.S. to 2022/2027. These large differences stem from a rebasing of Esri’s population, housing, and geography based on the latest decennial census information. The 2021/2026 estimates and projections were derived from Census 2010 demographic data and geography, thus making the 2021 estimate an 11.25-year forecast horizon and the 2026 projection a 16.25-year forecast horizon. However, Esri’s 2022/2027 Updated Demographics are built from Census 2020 data and geography. Therefore, the 2022 data represents a 2.25-year forecast horizon and the 2027 data a 7.25- year projection from the 2020 base. Census Bureau procedural and processing changes can also produce unexpected change in some variables. Additional changes can come from apportioning data to user-defined boundaries based on new sub-block group information.

Migrating from Esri Updated Demographics 2021/2026 to 2022/2027: Expected Change